IRAN AND THE BOMB, NOT GOOD, NOT GOOD - AT 8:50 P.M. ET:  From The Times of London:

Iran has perfected the technology to create and detonate a nuclear warhead and is merely awaiting the word from its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to produce its first bomb, Western intelligence sources have told The Times.

The sources said that Iran completed a research programme to create weaponised uranium in the summer of 2003 and that it could feasibly make a bomb within a year of an order from its Supreme Leader.

That year, 2003, stuck in my mind.  Here's why:

A US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago concluded that Iran had ended its nuclear arms research programme in 2003 because of the threat from the American invasion of Iraq. But intelligence sources have told The Times that Tehran had halted the research because it had achieved its aim — to find a way of detonating a warhead that could be launched on its long-range Shehab-3 missiles.

That would seem logical, if chilling.  There should be a complete Congressional investigation of how our NIE was written...because no one else agrees with it, and it didn't seem to be based on much.  Maybe wishful thinking.

If Iran’s leader does decide to build a bomb, he will have two choices, intelligence sources said. One would be to take the high-risk approach of kicking out the international inspectors and making a sprint to complete Iran’s first bomb, as the country weathered international sanctions or possible air strikes in the ensuing crisis. The other would be to covertly develop the materials needed for an arsenal in secret desert facilities.

Secret facilities?  They wouldn't do that, would they?  Especially after The One's outreach to Muslim countries?  We must think better of our culturally different neighbors.

COMMENT:  It's impossible for me to evaluate this story, but it does seem very solidly reported.  It's clear there were a variety of sources.  The story notes:

British intelligence services are familiar with the secret information about Iran’s experiments, sources at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said. Although British agencies did not have their own “independent evidence” that Iran had successfully tested the explosive component of a nuclear warhead, they said there was no reason to doubt the assessment.

And that's the point.  There's no reason to doubt it.  And wise defense planners plan for the bad news, not a rosy view of the world.  Crunch time is coming for President Obama.  Within the next five months, Iran policy will either move toward success or catastrophic failure.  We hope someone in the White House understands the consequences of failure.

August 2, 2009